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Experts in the field of epidemiology believe that it is not a question
of if another pandemic flu will occur, but rather when. Historically,
pandemic flu outbreaks occur 2 to 3 times in a century, but never
more than 40 years apart. It has been 38 years since the last pandemic.
Currently, H5N1, commonly referred to as Avian or Bird Flu, is the
most likely candidate to become a major pandemic.
There have been reports worldwide of the H5N1 virus killing birds
and, in a number of cases, humans. Epidemiologists believe the virus
first began circulating in Hong Kong, in 1997 and again in 2003.
Since 2003, it has spread throughout South East Asia and to more
than 20 nations on 3 continents. While to date, only 160 people
have been infected; the Avian Flu has a 56 percent mortality rate.
Currently, the H5N1 strain has only shown signs of human-to-human
transmission in rare household instances but should it mutate, and
thus efficiently transmit from human-to-human, the effects could
be disastrous.
According to the Centers for Disease Control
and Prevention (CDC) the virus could be on par with Hurricane Katrina in its
damage. The CDC’s website states,
“In the United States a “medium–level”
pandemic could cause 89,000 to 207,000 deaths, 314,000 and 734,000
hospitalizations, 18 to 42 million outpatient visits, and another
20 to 47 million people being sick. Between 15 percent and 35 percent
of the U.S. population could be affected by an influenza pandemic,
and the economic impact could range between $71.3 and $166.5 billion.”
These estimates are for only “medium-level” pandemics
and the effects of a virus cannot be fully known until an outbreak
occurs; with a 56 percent mortality rate, the effects could be far
worse, with some estimates as high as 1.8 million deaths in the
United States alone. Should an outbreak of H5N1 occur one of the
best defenses we may have is large scale vaccination.
For more information about Avian Flu go to:
http://www.pandemicflu.gov Department of Health and Human Services
http://www.cdc.gov/flu/pandemic/ Centers for Disease Control and
Prevention
http://www.who.int/csr/don/2004_01_15/en/
World Health Organization
http://www.who.int/csr/disease/avian_influenza/en
http://www.osha.gov/dsg/guidance/avian-flu.html Department of Labor,
Occupational Safety and Health Administration
http://www.hhs.gov/nvpo/pandemics/
Department of Health and Human Services
For more information on vaccines please visit sanofi pasteur at
http://www.sanofipasteur.com.
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